In “No Safe Harbor: Countering Aggression in the East China Sea,” authors Patrick Cronin, Daniel Kliman, and Harry Krejsa, drawing on an elaborate tabletop exercise conducted in December 2017, examine how the U.S.-Japan alliance can respond to potential future gray zone challenges in the East China Sea.
The report’s key insights and recommendations include:
The problem of deterring hybrid, irregular, and gray-zone challenges meant to stay below the threshold of outright conflict is expected to keep rising in maritime Asia. This rise correlates with efforts on behalf of a confident and more powerful China to restore its historic position in the region.
Despite strong U.S.-Japan alliance cohesion, there are seams that could potentially emerge during a crisis in the East China Sea. Areas that require alliance focus include: reconciling divergent estimates of Chinese intentions as tensions rise; determining which ally should take the lead in responding to China; allowing for America’s more “strategic” and Japan’s largely “legal” approach to decisionmaking; determining how Article V of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security applies to ambiguous scenarios; and ensuring readiness to confront new technologies such as cyberwarfare and the use of unmanned vehicles, especially unmanned underwater vehicles.
An overriding challenge for both the United States and Japan is balancing the need to impose costs on China with the need to de-escalate tensions in the event of an East China Sea scenario. During a crisis, China may seek to exploit the speed of its decisionmaking process as an advantage. The alliance may derive benefit from avoiding tit-for-tat responses by shifting the domain of confrontation to another type or place of competition other than the use of military forces at the point of tension.
To prepare for future Chinese aggression in the East China Sea, the United States and Japan should: clarify and deepen America’s Article V security commitment to Japan regarding gray-zone challenges; establish an information operations center within the alliance; maintain a sufficient deterrent force to respond to low-level provocations and challenges; prepare for China to deploy new technologies in ambiguous situations; and, lastly, address cyber vulnerabilities, especially within Japan but also across the alliance.
Patrick Cronin and Daniel Kliman are available for discussions or interviews. To make arrangements, please contact Madeline Christian at mchristian@cnas.org or call 202-695-8166.
The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) is an independent and nonpartisan research institution that develops strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies. CNAS leads efforts to help inform and prepare the national security leaders of today and tomorrow.
