The US embassy in Venezuela will not be evacuated, even though Maduro’s regime has asked for diplomats to vacate the premises. The Washington Examiner reports:Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has rejected Nicolas Maduro’s demand that he withdraw U.S. diplomats by Saturday afternoon. I suspect he’s done so in order to encourage a systemic breach between Maduro and the Venezuelan military that keeps him in power.Pompeo knows that the Venezuelan military’s support for Maduro is not, ultimately, ideological in nature. Rather, it reflects Maduro’s mass-bribery of the military’s top ranks — the abundant patronage he is providing. The military’s general officer ranks have become very wealthy as a result of this corruption.Yet, even if they are immoral, they are not irrational. Maduro might rant about “extreme imperialist insolence” as he demands the U.S. withdraw its diplomats, but the military is the only means by which he can effect that withdrawal.Any military attack on the U.S. embassy would invite a violent exchange with the embassy’s Marine security garrison. It would also become a standing invitation for the Marine FAST team, which is likely being moved proximate to Venezuela even as we speak. Even if the Venezuelan generals could win a short-term struggle for control of the embassy compound, any loss of American life would not only be matched by significant Venezuelan military casualties (the embassy’s terrain is well-suited to a defensive action), but it would also become a legitimate casus belli. An attack on the U.S. would hasten the demise of the officers involved or lead to their future lifetime spent in a U.S. federal penitentiary.
Although this could turn into a Benghazi like situation, any attack on the embassy would likely start a war in Venezuela that Maduro could not possibly win, leading to faster regime change and a potential trial for him.
